Simon: "Appalling". Randy: "Dude, why are you here?" Paula covers her ears. These American Idol contestants, you know the ones, have no concept of how much they can't sing. They're not self-critical or introspective enough. Of course, we see the worst of the worst; the most delusional cherry-picked for our viewing amusement.
Their responses are predictable: bargaining, defiance, anger. Some take the "high" road; telling the judges they're entitled to their opinions, however wrong.
The Idol example is an extreme one, but it's a good demonstration of a defining human characteristic: bias. We all have intrinsic biases, ranging in size from big biases like bigotry or nationalism to small things like which route we'd rather take to work. Some people are biased to believe that they have talent, in spite of strong evidence to the contrary. These individual affinities and aversions are often the at the root of political opinions, work habits, and social behaviors.
That's why the blog "Overcoming Bias" is worth reading. A couple of good starter articles: "Bias, feature not bug", and "A game for self-calibration". They even have a section for... overconfidence.
Posted by eric at January 17, 2007 07:15 PM